Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19fe…23cb world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% $0
other 13% −$3
politics 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 67% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -3.9% -13.1% 41% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage461d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $52 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $40 +$3 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $114 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $9 $0 -5%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin above $111,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $12 $0 +2%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars draft Will Campbell? Apr 18 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $12 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $45 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $17 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $3 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $14 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $24 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $40 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $0 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $18 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $5 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $24 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.82 · official $45.82 (match) · 84 history records