Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

19 0x19fe…3f6f crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$184 (+8%) realized +$205 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day185.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-14.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-5.7%	-14.7%	52%	52%	-24.0%
≤30d	21	-5.7%	-14.7%	52%	52%	-24.0%
≤90d	21	-5.7%	-14.7%	52%	52%	-24.0%
all	21	-5.7%	-14.7%	52%	52%	-24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover185.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-14.7%	52%	-24.0%
10% ← realistic here	-22.9%	48%	-31.3%
15%	-30.3%	48%	-37.9%
20%	-37.2%	48%	-44.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late -16% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$77 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$379

Realized+$205

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)21 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day185.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	59¢	56¢	$300	$281	−$19 (-6%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 19	$154	+$84	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 19	$129	−$125	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 19	$257	−$257	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 19	$102	−$102	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 19	$71	−$71	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 19	$36	+$31	+87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 19	$233	+$50	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 19	$101	−$95	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 19	$48	+$43	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 19	$21	−$3	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 19	$31	+$27	+88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 19	$11	−$10	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 19	$170	+$117	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 19	$114	−$20	-18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 19	$21	+$12	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 19	$72	+$40	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 19	$82	+$49	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 19	$62	−$62	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 19	$31	+$18	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 19	$15	+$11	+69%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	53¢	$101	26m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	62¢	$101	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$238	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$26	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$26	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$26	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$26	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$26	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$26	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$26	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$26	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$26	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$26	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$26	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$26	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$26	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$25	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$25	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$26	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$26	48m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	64¢	$101	49m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$51	50m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.03 · official $363.86 · 198 history records