Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x19fc…8357 crypto 371 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-1%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate65%243W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$216
14 days+$117
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$120
sports 14% −$46
other 0% −$3
weather 0% −$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +4.0% -5.9% 85% 48% -5.2%
≤30d 204 +2.2% -7.5% 78% 46% -7.5%
≤90d 371 -1.5% -10.9% 65% 46% -8.9%
all 371 -1.5% -10.9% 65% 46% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 46% -8.9%
10% -19.4% 37% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 27% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses243 / 128
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)371 / 371
History coverage54d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 371 Trades
no open positions (64 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $119 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $273 +$315 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $109 −$109 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $144 +$45 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $243 +$35 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $119 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $271 −$263 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $116 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $156 +$44 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $145 +$27 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $157 −$156 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$101 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $131 +$54 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $111 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $163 +$26 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $121 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $135 +$34 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $155 +$37 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $99 +$114 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $119 +$48 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $109 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $119 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $112 +$27 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $179 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $134 +$33 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $131 −$127 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $149 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $137 +$32 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $82 +$110 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $123 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $71 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $218 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $107 +$25 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $119 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 06 $106 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $120 −$116 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $106 +$35 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $99 −$96 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $273 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $243 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $105 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $119 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $271 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $116 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $156 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $145 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $157 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $131 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $111 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $163 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $121 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $135 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $155 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $99 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $119 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $109 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $119 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $112 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $103 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 838 history records