Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x19fb…2cfd
other · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$6
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage260d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 92¢ 77¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $9 +$3 +35%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Nov 04 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 31 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $9 $0 +5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $6 −$1 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 27 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $4 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% −$6
world 22% $0
politics 20% −$2
sports 9% +$2
culture 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 15h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $3 42h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 47h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 47h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $39 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $31 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $7 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $44 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $24 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 4d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $3 198d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 198d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 198d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 199d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 199d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 199d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 199d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $9 199d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $9 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 199d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $9 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 52 -2.6% -11.9% 25% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 4% -10.2%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.8%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.55 · official $5.20 (match) · 193 history records