Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19f5…c385 sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$452 (-17%) realized −$192 · open −$260
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$418
other 14% −$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 1 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 44 -23.3% -30.6% 39% 36% -28.0%
all 44 -23.3% -30.6% 39% 36% -28.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 36% -28.0%
10% -37.2% 34% -34.9%
15% -43.3% 30% -41.2%
20% -48.8% 27% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$47 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$192
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage70d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ $200 $39 −$161 (-80%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $51 −$1 -3%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 May 06 $61 −$61 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $101 +$65 +65%
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 05 $52 −$52 -99%
Will FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? May 05 $41 +$119 +291%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants May 05 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $101 −$100 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $193 −$190 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $81 +$118 +145%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 02 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $101 +$27 +27%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 20 $50 −$50 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Apr 19 $40 −$29 -74%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Apr 19 $12 −$12 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $40 −$39 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Apr 19 $175 −$175 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 19 $20 −$19 -96%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 19 $40 +$42 +105%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $30 −$29 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Apr 18 $50 +$49 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $61 +$27 +44%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 18 $30 +$22 +73%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $80 −$30 -38%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $40 +$51 +127%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Apr 16 $30 −$30 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 16 $30 +$34 +114%
Goyang vs. Seoul Knights Apr 16 $79 +$12 +16%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Apr 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $30 +$50 +168%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $53 +$39 +73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $50 +$1 +1%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $45 −$43 -94%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 15 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $35 +$8 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $102 2h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 51¢ $51 14h
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants $1 43d
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 58¢ $51 44d
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 47¢ $61 44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 60¢ $101 44d
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $52 44d
Will FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 44d
Will FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 44d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $51 44d
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $217 44d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) SELL 76ers $1 45d
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $102 45d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY 76ers 51¢ $101 45d
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $193 46d
76ers vs. Celtics SELL 76ers 100¢ $200 47d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 40¢ $81 47d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $61 47d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 47d
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai SELL Quillan Salkilld 100¢ $128 47d
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai BUY Quillan Salkilld 78¢ $101 47d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants SELL Hanwha Eagles 13¢ $11 60d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 50¢ $12 60d
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $40 61d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) SELL Hawks $1 61d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 58¢ $50 61d
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $82 61d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Hawks 49¢ $20 61d
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $40 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.35 · official $49.05 · 88 history records