Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x19f4…c772
crypto · 761 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$684 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,410 · open +$80
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$469
Realized−$1,410
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses493 / 256
Open positions13
Markets (closed)749 / 761
History coverage18d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day159.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 749 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$258
7 days−$240
14 days−$2,108
30 days−$1,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $58 $97 +$38 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $48 $96 +$48 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $17 $65 +$48 (+272%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $54 $59 +$5 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 46¢ 45¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $21 $39 +$18 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 8? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $31 +$19 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $53 +$37 +71%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$36 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$52 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$17 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$49 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$78 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $71 +$51 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 +$111 +206%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$43 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$71 +140%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 −$38 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $68 +$21 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $63 −$61 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $27 +$76 +279%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $22 +$63 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$14 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$66 +334%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$48 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$33 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 −$67 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $42 +$47 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $70 −$70 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $14 +$59 +423%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$48 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$63 +367%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 65% −$158
weather 35% −$1,170
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 30m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 30m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 30m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 30m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 55m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 55m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 56m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 58m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 +3.2% -6.6% 61% 22% -11.5%
≤30d 749 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 16% -14.0%
≤90d 749 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 16% -14.0%
all 749 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 16% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover159.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 16% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 12% -22.2%
15% -29.9% 12% -29.8%
20% -36.8% 11% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.03 · official $469.03 (match) · 3500 history records