Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19ed…d833 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$601 (+1%) realized +$601 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,097per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$21
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$56
other 38% +$717
sports 15% −$93
world 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$7
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -11.5% -20.0% 9% 5% -9.4%
all 104 -4.7% -13.8% 12% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 8% -9.1%
10% -22.0% 7% -17.8%
15% -29.5% 6% -25.7%
20% -36.5% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,439) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$15 · ×9.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1,123
Realized+$601
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage107d
Avg bet$1,097
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $906 $907 +$0 (+0%)
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $216 $216 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,276 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,572 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,496 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,574 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,285 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,484 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,432 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 04 $549 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $927 +$6 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,909 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,203 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,219 −$1 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 13 $1,202 −$16 -1%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $899 +$1,191 +133%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $3,391 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4,076 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,122 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $4,608 −$5 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $2,991 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $2,422 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $3,277 −$2 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $1,591 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 5h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $253 8h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $253 9h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $422 29h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $423 31h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $907 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,548 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,551 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,494 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,496 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,571 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,574 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,462 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,464 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,446 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,449 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,666 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,620 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,623 13d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,452 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,454 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,427 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,429 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,636 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,638 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,437 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,439 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,123.28 · official $1,123.28 (match) · 353 history records