Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19ec…4c5b world 34 markets active 4h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-4%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$5
other 23% −$33
politics 12% +$2
sports 4% $0
weather 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.5%
all 34 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 3% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -13.2%
10% -22.7% 0% -21.5%
15% -30.2% 0% -29.1%
20% -37.0% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage300d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $41 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $34 −$5 -16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Au Aug 21 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Aug 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $2 $0 +12%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 19 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $20 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $16 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $36 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $40 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $6 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $7 35h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $14 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records