Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19ea…5d08 economics 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$257 (-61%) realized −$50 · open −$207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 161d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 97% −$372
other 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$44 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage161d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $242 $35 −$207 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $154 −$154 -100%
Ranger FDV above $60M one day after launch? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ranger FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $6 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $44 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $45 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $50 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $8 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $2 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $0 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $4 49d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $15 52d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 0¢ $25 52d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 10¢ $50 67d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 12¢ $49 69d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $1 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $10 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $1 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $1 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $1 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $2 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $1 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No 2¢ $0 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.10 · official $35.10 (match) · 48 history records