trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -23.1% | -30.4% | 50% | 50% | -30.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -9.5% | -18.1% | 67% | 67% | -16.1% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -61.2% | -64.9% | 29% | 29% | -61.1% |
| all | 7 | -61.2% | -64.9% | 29% | 29% | -61.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -64.9% | 29% | -61.1% |
| 10% | -68.3% | 14% | -64.8% |
| 15% | -71.3% | 0% | -68.2% |
| 20% | -74.1% | 0% | -71.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $300 | $213 | −$87 (-29%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 34¢ | 14¢ | $300 | $124 | −$176 (-59%) |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $11 | −$4 (-27%) |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $5 | −$5 (-48%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-36%) |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $3 | −$3 (-55%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 23 | $299 | −$223 | -74% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 | Jun 23 | $300 | +$85 | +28% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $376 | +$67 | +18% |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? | Apr 13 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Apr 13 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Apr 13 | $328 | −$328 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Apr 13 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |