Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19e8…405f other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,826 (-14%) realized −$17,833 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 27L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,734per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$597
7 days+$1,522
14 days+$295
30 days−$2,962
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$17,884
sports 20% +$3,165
politics 10% −$751
world 3% −$1,970
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +22.8% +11.1% 59% 38% -2.1%
≤30d 41 +18.4% +7.1% 54% 34% -17.8%
≤90d 41 +18.4% +7.1% 54% 34% -17.8%
all 70 +7.7% -2.5% 61% 30% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 30% -22.2%
10% -11.9% 17% -29.6%
15% -20.4% 14% -36.4%
20% -28.2% 9% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$2,305) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$1,016 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$757
Realized−$17,833
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage258d
Avg bet$1,734
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $535 +$207 +39%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2,788 +$286 +10%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $481 −$3 -1%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $320 +$8 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,006 +$169 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $77 −$69 -90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,612 −$85 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,002 +$63 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $153 −$111 -73%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$45 +44%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $603 −$58 -10%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $702 +$59 +8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $252 +$110 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $502 +$73 +14%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $362 +$201 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$92 +1116%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,557 +$55 +4%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $78 +$22 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,017 +$800 +40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $608 +$484 +80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $628 −$618 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1,163 −$1,163 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$67 +649%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $305 −$170 -56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,106 +$235 +11%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $381 +$24 +6%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2,638 +$78 +3%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $3,130 −$1,970 -63%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,175 −$1,170 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 29 $3,038 +$62 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 28 $4,407 −$3,403 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $16,380 −$10,751 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $1,697 −$1,697 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $2,680 +$484 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $304 −$228 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $438 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $4,619 +$768 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $1,399 +$56 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 32m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 98¢ $455 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Portugal 11¢ $12 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Portugal 23¢ $26 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 89¢ $170 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 73¢ $131 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $302 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 83¢ $329 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $231 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $151 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $401 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $302 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 74¢ $19 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2,005 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $8 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 26h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $34 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $79 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $445 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $501 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 18¢ $91 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $354 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $757.31 · official $757.31 (match) · 365 history records