Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19e7…dac8 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 25% −$1
politics 8% $0
sports 5% −$3
weather 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.5% -6.4% 33% 33% -10.1%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 11% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -8.8% -17.5% 36% 9% -9.6%
all 24 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -10.0%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage467d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $81 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $40 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 22 $7 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 26 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Mar 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $16 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $34 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $43 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 17h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 73¢ $39 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $40 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $43 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $43 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $28 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $24 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records