Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19e5…dd71 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$120 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate58%76W / 56L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$193
7 days+$250
14 days+$117
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$127
world 29% −$276
sports 15% +$207
weather 7% +$147
politics 3% −$101
tech 2% −$27
crypto 1% −$11
economics 1% −$7
culture 0% −$6
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -1.5% -10.8% 70% 29% -5.9%
≤30d 115 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 27% -10.3%
≤90d 132 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 24% -11.1%
all 132 -2.0% -11.3% 58% 24% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 24% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 8% -19.6%
15% -27.6% 5% -27.4%
20% -34.7% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$2,672
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses76 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions31
Markets (closed)132 / 163
History coverage49d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $588 $608 +$20 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $293 $394 +$101 (+35%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? No 93¢ 92¢ $360 $358 −$2 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $249 $287 +$38 (+15%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 91¢ 90¢ $154 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 87¢ 89¢ $134 $136 +$2 (+1%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+1%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 74¢ 77¢ $66 $69 +$3 (+4%)
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 95¢ 99¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 60¢ $57 $53 −$5 (-8%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 78¢ 75¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 83¢ 64¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-24%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 96¢ 91¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 68¢ 72¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-26%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 78¢ 72¢ $16 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$8 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 −$19 -40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $240 +$15 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $63 +$3 +6%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 −$9 -22%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $37 +$4 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $33 −$6 -19%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$6 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $481 +$19 +4%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 14 $29 +$4 +15%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Will San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks be the 2026 NBA Finals matc Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 14 $63 +$4 +6%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 14 $119 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $438 −$59 -13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $643 +$74 +12%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $369 +$69 +19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$6 +148%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 14 $127 +$26 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $140 +$13 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $220 +$12 +6%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$12 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $512 +$40 +8%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $24 +$2 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $131 +$3 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $49 −$45 -90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $89 +$3 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $26 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $49 +$5 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $31 +$6 +20%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $161 −$22 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1 37m
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $8 39m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 45m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $23 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 93¢ $236 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026- BUY No 93¢ $125 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 3h
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 91¢ $6 3h
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? BUY No 96¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $80 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $61 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 59¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 4h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $11 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 73¢ $3 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $34 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 69¢ $14 5h
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $4 7h
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $9 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,672.29 · official $2,672.15 (match) · 1456 history records