Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19e5…22ce other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$2
other 25% −$1
politics 11% −$3
crypto 7% −$3
sports 6% +$1
tech 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
weather 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 7 +139.5% +116.7% 29% 14% -10.9%
≤90d 7 +139.5% +116.7% 29% 14% -10.9%
all 44 +13.4% +2.6% 41% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 2% -11.0%
10% -7.3% 2% -19.5%
15% -16.2% 2% -27.3%
20% -24.4% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage477d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $42 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -51%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $37 −$5 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $43 +$4 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $42 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $4 $0 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 06 $7 $0 +4%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 29 $2 $0 -1%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? May 28 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on May 30? May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 05 $15 −$3 -18%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $3 $0 -8%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 30 $11 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 30 $2 $0 -17%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Oregon win the East region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 18 $16 +$1 +9%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March 15? Mar 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on March 3? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Red Wings Mar 03 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $45 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $42 19h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $37 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $17 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $30 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $28 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $15 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $41 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $11 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $31 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 29d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 187d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 361d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 361d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 366d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 366d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 366d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 367d
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 389d
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr BUY No 96¢ $7 390d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.09 · official $44.46 (match) · 141 history records