Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19e5…b080 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$111 (-4%) realized −$94 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$176
other 19% −$28
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.0% -7.7% 47% 47% -16.1%
≤30d 15 +2.0% -7.7% 47% 47% -16.1%
≤90d 15 +2.0% -7.7% 47% 47% -16.1%
all 20 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 35% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 35% -17.9%
10% -25.8% 35% -25.8%
15% -33.0% 35% -32.9%
20% -39.6% 30% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$57 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions11
Markets (closed)20 / 31
History coverage233d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $41 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $127 −$122 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$61 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$24 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $201 −$191 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $120 −$112 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $169 +$145 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $166 +$104 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$19 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$26 +126%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 45% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 NY Nov 05 $2 −$1 -73%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Nov 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the second most Oct 30 $70 −$69 -98%
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherland Oct 30 $150 −$80 -54%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 30 $748 +$39 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 6m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 10m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $114 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 30m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $201 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down $8 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $42 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $445.58 · official $445.68 (match) · 96 history records