Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19e1…1e02 world 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$11
other 23% −$1
politics 16% −$2
sports 10% −$1
finance 4% +$5
economics 2% +$1
crypto 2% −$9
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 8% -9.5%
≤30d 28 +1.3% -8.3% 36% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 68 +0.7% -8.9% 35% 1% -9.6%
all 87 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 56
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage338d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $463 +$3 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $149 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $168 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $86 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $59 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $320 −$14 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $147 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $146 +$2 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $311 +$4 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $166 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $206 −$5 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $96 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $160 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $167 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $6 $0 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $364 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $325 +$5 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $148 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $170 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $286 −$5 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $10 −$1 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $326 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $149 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $176 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $160 +$5 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $155 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $307 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $158 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $284 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $143 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $142 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 20 $284 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $816 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $323 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $142 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $156 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 20m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $34 20m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $46 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $149 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $149 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $111 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $127 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $86 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $86 16h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $60 25h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $59 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $112 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $12 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $133 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $105 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $147 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $162 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $162 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $33 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $8 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $154 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.00 (match) · 440 history records