Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19df…6440 politics 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%6W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$3
sports 31% −$2
other 13% $0
crypto 5% $0
world 5% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 41 -2.7% -12.0% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses6 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage233d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $98 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $1 $0 -50%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $98 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 08 $2 $0 -15%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $101 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $97 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $96 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 12 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $97 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $89 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $99 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 21 $1 $0 -25%
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 07 $102 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $97 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $99 32d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $99 36d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 42d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 109d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 109d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 110d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $98 110d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $98 112d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 114d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $100 114d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $100 122d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 122d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 124d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 124d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 128d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $99 134d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $99 139d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 139d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $94 140d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $94 143d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 146d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $100 146d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $100 150d
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $99 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.58 · official $96.58 (match) · 219 history records