Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19de…0f53 crypto 335 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-3%) realized −$45 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%131W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$7
14 days−$15
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$111
other 3% −$16
sports 1% +$10
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +5.6% -4.4% 28% 26% -14.7%
≤30d 60 -6.2% -15.1% 28% 23% -22.4%
≤90d 333 -13.5% -21.8% 39% 32% -17.0%
all 333 -13.5% -21.8% 39% 32% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 32% -17.0%
10% -29.3% 24% -25.0%
15% -36.1% 19% -32.2%
20% -42.4% 15% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses131 / 202
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)333 / 335
History coverage84d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 41¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+144%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -62%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +477%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$24 +741%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$16 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$5 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 59m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 59m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 1037 history records