Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
19 0x19de…03a6 other 50 markets active 2d ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,541 (-9%) realized −$1,541 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$562
14 days−$562
30 days−$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$1,563
politics 15% +$229
sports 3% −$251
crypto 1% +$31
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 46% -27.6%
≤30d 24 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 46% -27.6%
≤90d 35 -10.0% -18.6% 54% 40% -30.9%
all 50 -14.8% -22.9% 54% 34% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 34% -18.0%
10% -30.3% 22% -25.8%
15% -37.1% 14% -33.0%
20% -43.2% 12% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$106 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,541
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage213d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $226 −$221 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $372 −$146 -39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$21 -67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $231 −$230 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $42 +$37 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $81 +$25 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $552 +$10 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$57 +63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $92 +$26 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $428 +$55 +13%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 +$27 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$12 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$2 -5%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? Apr 04 $11 $0 -2%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026? Apr 04 $24 −$5 -23%
San Luis Potosi: James Duckworth vs Beibit Zhukayev Apr 04 $22 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs ODDIK (BO5) - PGL Astana: South American Closed Apr 04 $21 +$2 +8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 03 $38 +$4 +10%
LoL: Conviction vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers L Apr 03 $35 +$4 +11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $27 +$8 +29%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Apr 03 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Leicester City FC vs. Preston North End FC end in a draw? Apr 03 $10 +$14 +136%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $24 +$2 +10%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 20 $2,026 −$1,099 -54%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Dec 18 $1,250 −$172 -14%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 17 $4,464 +$193 +4%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $94 +$33 +35%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 04 $1,560 +$1 +0%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Nov 30 $1,157 +$43 +4%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? Nov 30 $299 +$43 +14%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Nov 28 $36 −$1 -1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 25 $400 +$16 +4%
Will Thailand win Miss Universe 2025? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Venezuela win Miss Universe 2025? Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win Miss Universe 2025? Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win Miss Universe 2025? Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 17 $1,100 +$37 +3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 17 $1,000 +$143 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $224 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $226 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $372 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 12¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $31 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $140 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $67 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $41 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $39 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $78 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $563 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $552 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $148 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 60¢ $91 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $118 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $483 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records