Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
19 0x19da…1ef0 crypto 194 markets active 23h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+3%) realized +$136 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%71W / 105L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$300
14 days−$300
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$69
other 2% +$14
world 1% −$1
sports 1% +$8
finance 1% −$12
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +5.0% -5.0% 37% 37% -57.5%
≤30d 50 +24.7% +12.8% 32% 32% -55.8%
≤90d 158 +3.2% -6.6% 42% 35% -8.0%
all 176 +6.9% -3.3% 40% 35% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 35% -8.0%
10% -12.5% 32% -16.8%
15% -21.0% 27% -24.9%
20% -28.7% 22% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses71 / 105
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)176 / 194
History coverage114d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$15 +144%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$35 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $132 −$126 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$111 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$17 +1606%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $44 +$16 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 25 $1 +$4 +344%
Exact Score: AC Milan 1 - 2 Cagliari Calcio? May 25 $1 +$17 +1701%
Exact Score: US Cremonese 0 - 3 Como 1907? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Torino FC 0 - 2 Juventus FC? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will US Cremonese vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $80 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 40h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.32 · official $32.32 (match) · 536 history records