Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19d8…1691 sports 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48,776 (-11%) realized −$47,593 · open −$1,183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%134W / 174L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,409per market
Trades / day51.6pace
Fees−$8,655est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,205
7 days−$11,657
14 days−$288
30 days−$17,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$21,632
other 2% −$1,267
world 1% −$3,612
tech 0% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -17.8% -25.6% 32% 27% -40.4%
≤30d 129 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 40% -19.5%
≤90d 308 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 41% -14.8%
all 308 -3.7% -12.9% 44% 41% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 41% -14.8%
10% -21.2% 38% -23.0%
15% ← realistic here -28.8% 38% -30.4%
20% -35.8% 35% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,936) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,297 vs −$1,145 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$4,741
Realized−$47,593
Unrealized−$1,183
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses134 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$8,655
Open positions3
Markets (closed)308 / 313
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$1,409
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 308 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 56¢ 50¢ $3,564 $3,160 −$404 (-11%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 56¢ 40¢ $2,220 $1,580 −$640 (-29%)
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? No 14¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$139 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,101 −$1,080 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,245 −$1,224 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,050 −$139 -13%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $427 +$573 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,969 −$1,969 -66%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,131 −$1,131 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,109 −$2,109 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,612 −$3,612 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,429 +$1,571 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,035 +$965 +93%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,913 −$130 -7%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,460 +$1,540 +106%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,584 −$1,584 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,201 −$1,201 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,253 −$2,253 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,883 +$117 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $477 +$523 +109%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $809 −$809 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,215 −$1,389 -63%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,126 +$3,874 +344%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,320 +$353 +8%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $426 +$232 +54%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $706 +$706 +100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,075 +$925 +86%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,060 +$140 +13%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $820 +$1,180 +144%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $530 +$470 +89%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,241 +$1,720 +77%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2,350 +$2,650 +113%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $1,195 +$1,092 +91%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $510 +$490 +96%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $500 +$500 +100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,009 −$1,009 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,728 −$1,682 -97%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $794 −$794 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $625 −$625 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,020 +$1,980 +194%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,976 +$1,524 +77%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,775 −$1,775 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,035 −$432 -42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,944 +$5,056 +260%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $510 +$490 +96%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $450 −$450 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $1,758 −$1,372 -78%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $378 +$625 +165%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $258 −$33 -13%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $616 −$382 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $1,115 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $1,135 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 52¢ $355 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 52¢ $11 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 52¢ $11 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 52¢ $26 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 52¢ $38 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 52¢ $5 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 52¢ $605 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $1,101 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 40¢ $1,222 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 39¢ $6 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 39¢ $3 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 39¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 39¢ $1 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 39¢ $12 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 31¢ $911 5h
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY No 14¢ $105 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $281 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $1 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $2 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $78 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $6 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $6 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $9 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $15 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $15 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $304 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $1 7h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,740.86 · official $4,740.86 (match) · 3500 history records