Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x19d4…074c
sports · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$12 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$9
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 4 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 32¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Yes $2 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$5 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$3 +109%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% +$3
other 31% −$8
tech 5% −$1
weather 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 34m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 33¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL Spirit 12¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $3 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 41¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes $2 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes $0 19h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $2 20h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $3 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $3 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $3 32h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $3 32h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FURIA 47¢ $3 32h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $3 32h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? SELL Yes $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? SELL Yes $0 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 38% -18.7%
≤30d 13 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 38% -18.7%
≤90d 13 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 38% -18.7%
all 13 -21.3% -28.8% 38% 38% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 38% -18.7%
10% -35.6% 38% -26.5%
15% -41.8% 38% -33.6%
20% -47.5% 38% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.17 · official $9.17 (match) · 40 history records