Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x19d0…461d
sports · 33 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$3 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Net worth$10
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage188d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +82%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $7 +$3 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +106%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2 −$1 -45%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $3 −$1 -35%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2 +$1 +58%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 $0 +5%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $6 +$5 +76%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $3 −$2 -55%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $1 +$4 +370%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $1 +$2 +174%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $1 $0 +13%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 30 $1 $0 +18%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $1 +$1 +124%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 23 $1 $0 -48%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $1 $0 +3%
1H Spread: Suns (-1.5) Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Cup? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline Apr 20 $0 $0 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 07 $1 +$3 +254%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$3
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $11 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 79¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $1 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $1 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 87¢ $1 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 46¢ $1 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 13d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $1 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $1 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 20¢ $1 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 33¢ $1 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 31¢ $1 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 43¢ $1 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $1 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 91¢ $1 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $6 21d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.7% -3.4% 60% 60% +10.8%
≤30d 18 +18.5% +7.2% 56% 44% -2.5%
≤90d 31 +3.9% -6.0% 52% 42% -5.5%
all 32 +4.4% -5.5% 53% 44% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 44% -5.3%
10% -14.6% 34% -14.3%
15% -22.8% 31% -22.6%
20% -30.4% 25% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.92 · official $9.92 (match) · 87 history records