Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19d0…2101 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$830 (-17%) realized −$830 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$2,002
other 32% +$1,228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 40% -23.7%
≤30d 20 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 40% -23.7%
≤90d 20 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 40% -23.7%
all 20 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 40% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 40% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 35% -31.0%
15% -36.0% 30% -37.6%
20% -42.3% 30% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$223 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$830
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$326 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $510 +$113 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $307 −$307 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $76 −$49 -64%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $407 −$407 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $508 −$508 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $510 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,010 −$340 -34%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $914 +$1,001 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +7%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 +$1 +145%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 +$5 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 52¢ $251 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 37¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $65 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $35 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 22¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $173 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $67 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $510 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $307 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $0 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 45¢ $671 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $102 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $102 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $1,010 9h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $407 11h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $102 11h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 48¢ $102 11h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $102 11h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $202 11h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 10¢ $5 12h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $28 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records