Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x19cd…dd44 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (313 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43,158 (+101%) realized +$42,069 · open +$1,089
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$3,563per market
Trades / day313.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,089now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$42,069
other 0% +$1,089
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (313 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +62.3% +46.8% 83% 83% +79.6%
≤30d 12 +62.3% +46.8% 83% 83% +79.6%
≤90d 12 +62.3% +46.8% 83% 83% +79.6%
all 12 +62.3% +46.8% 83% 83% +79.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover313.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.8% 83% +79.6%
10% +32.8% 83% +62.4%
15% ← realistic here +20.0% 83% +46.7%
20% +8.2% 83% +32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +98% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +91% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
26.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,344 vs −$687 · ×6.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.64 per $1 lost it wins $31.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,089
Realized+$42,069
Unrealized+$1,089
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,563
Trades / day313.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1,089 +$1,089 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $1,217 +$983 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $1,238 +$962 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $1,154 +$1,046 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $1,120 +$1,080 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $1,209 +$991 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $1,004 +$1,218 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $1,364 −$1,326 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $1,622 +$1,622 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $3,416 +$2,127 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $9,472 +$12,383 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $19,895 +$21,031 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $764 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $453 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $705 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $44 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $489 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $46 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1,108 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1,120 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $236 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $555 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $418 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1,156 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $186 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,089.00 · official $0.00 · 323 history records