Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19cc…ca7d crypto 956 markets active 6d ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,439 (+25%) realized +$2,439 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%560W / 570L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day126.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+74.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 +381.1% +335.3% 48% 47% -36.0%
≤30d 1104 +92.4% +74.1% 49% 40% -12.2%
≤90d 1130 +93.0% +74.6% 50% 40% -11.7%
all 1130 +93.0% +74.6% 50% 40% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +74.6% 40% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here +57.9% 33% -20.1%
15% +42.6% 28% -27.8%
20% +28.6% 23% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +93% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +164% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,439
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses560 / 570
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1130 / 956
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day126.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1130 Trades
no open positions (455 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$11 +1697%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$46 +64936%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$60 +25336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$4 -2721%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$16 -19903%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$11 +28185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$5 +932%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$7 -2113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$19 -5271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$12 -4492%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$39 -17220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$16 -28097%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -804%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$10 -1683%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -415%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +846%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$1 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$22 -215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$20 -2378%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -3132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$14 -3044%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$2 -742%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$7 -1676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$24 +4613%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$33 -29136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$15 -3027%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$25 -2650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$62 +33412%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$30 +65138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$8 +1436%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$6 +2698%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$4 +597%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$4 -5672%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$9 -2793%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$18 -4655%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$7 +3502%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$54 -18181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$1 +544%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$50 -308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$3 +1034%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$39 -7337%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records