Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19cb…a867 crypto 321 markets active 2d ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,335 (-22%) realized −$1,242 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%52W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$563
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$458
other 12% −$208
world 5% −$268
politics 5% −$296
sports 4% −$146
weather 3% −$69
finance 1% −$61
economics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$10
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -86.9% -88.1% 6% 6% -90.8%
≤30d 132 -39.7% -45.4% 19% 19% -9.7%
≤90d 246 -53.6% -58.1% 13% 13% -27.5%
all 304 -41.4% -47.0% 17% 16% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 16% -32.0%
10% -52.1% 16% -38.5%
15% -56.7% 16% -44.4%
20% -61.0% 15% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$17 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$1,242
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses52 / 252
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)304 / 321
History coverage249d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-75%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-41%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-81%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 64¢ 5¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-92%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the announcers say "Blood" or "Bloody" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the announcers say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the announcers say "Topuria" or "Gaethje" 15+ times during UFC 25 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$31 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$11 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $49 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $28 +$10 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? BUY No 19¢ $5 2d
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 2d
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will the announcers say "Blood" or "Bloody" during UFC 250? BUY No 23¢ $2 2d
Will the announcers say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY No 1¢ $2 2d
Will the announcers say "Topuria" or "Gaethje" 15+ times during UFC 25 BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.38 · official $99.38 (match) · 867 history records