Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x19ca…35e5 tech 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$39 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,039now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 59% +$28
crypto 26% +$1
finance 16% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.8%
all 7 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 0% -7.8%
10% -16.9% 0% -16.7%
15% -24.9% 0% -24.7%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1,039
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage73d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $449 $449 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $299 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 97¢ $297 $291 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $346 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 14 $349 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 14 $349 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 19 $112 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 19 $131 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 19 $369 +$13 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 19 $396 +$21 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,039.28 · official $1,039.28 (match) · 17 history records