Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19be…8d0a crypto 151 markets active 5d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$214 (-8%) realized −$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%46W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$459
14 days−$676
30 days−$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$621
sports 25% −$135
other 5% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -44.2% -49.5% 21% 15% -45.6%
≤30d 151 -24.6% -31.8% 30% 26% -35.2%
≤90d 151 -24.6% -31.8% 30% 26% -35.2%
all 151 -24.6% -31.8% 30% 26% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 26% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 23% -41.4%
15% -44.3% 21% -47.0%
20% -49.7% 17% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses46 / 105
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage21d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$30 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$20 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$10 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $5 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Iraq 52¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $5 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 542 history records