Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19be…e009 other 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 228L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 25% −$22
politics 8% −$8
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% +$1
crypto 5% +$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 195 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)241 / 241
History coverage126d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 241 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $454 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $464 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $398 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $417 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $228 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $433 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $242 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $349 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $533 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $445 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $724 +$1 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $123 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $277 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $646 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $123 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $565 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $160 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $190 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $354 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $264 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $549 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 11h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 13h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 16h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 16h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 18h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 29h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 31h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 32h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 34h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 35h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 36h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 38h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 40h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 44h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 46h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 47h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1304 history records