Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x19b9…d75e finance 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 689d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,453 (+1%) realized +$1,476 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate66%81W / 41L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,613now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$453
14 days+$265
30 days+$992
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 67% +$1,401
politics 16% +$391
world 6% +$14
other 5% +$20
crypto 5% −$443
sports 0% −$309
economics 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +102.0% +82.8% 100% 100% +82.8%
≤30d 8 +81.8% +64.5% 50% 50% +14.5%
≤90d 63 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 21% -7.2%
all 122 +2.5% -7.2% 66% 27% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 27% -8.3%
10% -16.1% 19% -17.1%
15% -24.2% 16% -25.1%
20% -31.6% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$114 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

689d coverage
Net worth$1,613
Realized+$1,476
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses81 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)122 / 128
History coverage689d
Avg bet$787
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $825 $874 +$50 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $245 $239 −$6 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $156 $170 +$14 (+9%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Down 22¢ 18¢ $174 $144 −$30 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $180 $130 −$50 (-28%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-10 House seat? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $444 +$453 +102%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $293 −$188 -64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,440 +$867 +60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $21 +$3 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1,204 −$497 -41%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $364 −$120 -33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18? Jun 01 $139 −$6 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? Jun 01 $70 +$480 +689%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $187 −$41 -22%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $186 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 15 $95 +$3 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $134 −$114 -86%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $68 −$34 -50%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $100 −$99 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $130 +$111 +86%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $23 −$8 -35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 30? May 04 $74 +$47 +64%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Ap May 04 $20 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 04 $29 +$1 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 04 $29 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 04 $49 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 29? May 04 $256 +$240 +94%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 03 $1,645 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $821 −$70 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $1,402 +$168 +12%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $14 +$6 +46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 24? Apr 24 $302 +$127 +42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 24 $26 −$6 -24%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $20 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $9 −$2 -21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $47 −$28 -59%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 23 $42 −$10 -24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $20 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $207 −$37 -18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $469 −$51 -11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $1,081 +$36 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $203 −$15 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 21 $5,817 +$6 +0%
UK sanctions on Russia by October 31? Apr 14 $8 −$16 -200%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $6,071 +$14 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 12 $4 −$9 -200%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifie Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $5,126 +$414 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 10? Apr 11 $83 +$56 +67%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 23? Apr 10 $170 −$341 -200%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $129 −$68 -53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 04 $225 −$12 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $187 +$165 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 22¢ $45 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 22¢ $44 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 22¢ $45 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 21¢ $42 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 99¢ $114 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 99¢ $225 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 99¢ $338 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 97¢ $221 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $80 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $5 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $76 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $6 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $20 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $160 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $185 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 41¢ $20 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $849 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 58¢ $237 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 15¢ $105 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 34¢ $23 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 34¢ $10 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 34¢ $1 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 34¢ $17 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 34¢ $17 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 41¢ $43 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 41¢ $62 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 41¢ $18 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 51¢ $18 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 51¢ $26 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 51¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,612.78 · official $1,624.78 (match) · 1067 history records