Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19b7…9ee6 sports 804 markets active 6h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,024 (-4%) realized −$2,024 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%448W / 534L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day109.4pace
Fees−$671est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,400
7 days−$5,879
14 days−$2,205
30 days−$1,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$5,785
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -40.8% -46.5% 19% 18% -52.6%
≤30d 982 -5.1% -14.1% 46% 42% -12.2%
≤90d 982 -5.1% -14.1% 46% 42% -12.2%
all 982 -5.1% -14.1% 46% 42% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 42% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 36% -20.6%
15% -29.8% 30% -28.3%
20% -36.7% 24% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$38 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized−$2,024
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses448 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$671
Open positions0
Markets (closed)982 / 804
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day109.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 982 Trades
no open positions (391 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $22 −$28 -130%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 28 $3 $0 +16%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 28 $3 $0 -8%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $1 +$3 +233%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $2 +$2 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 28 $3 +$4 +138%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 28 $93 −$93 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $3 $0 -5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $1 +$2 +186%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 Jun 28 $1 +$95 +7974%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $2 +$1 +54%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $1 +$1 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 28 $93 −$103 -110%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 28 $1 +$32 +3785%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $1 +$5 +581%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 28 $2 $0 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 28 $1 +$12 +929%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 28 $2 $0 +29%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 28 $66 −$72 -109%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 28 $1 −$1 -83%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 28 $1 $0 +30%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $1 +$1 +91%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 28 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 28 $0 $0 -106%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 28 $0 +$1 +191%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 28 $1 $0 -70%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 28 $1 $0 -52%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 28 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 28 $0 −$1 -353%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $0 $0 -26%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $0 −$1 -179%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $0 $0 +183%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $728 −$729 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $0 $0 +47%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 28 $0 $0 -93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 78¢ $5 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 9¢ $2 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 9¢ $0 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $14 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $5 6h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 90¢ $12 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 30¢ $21 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 30¢ $2 9h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 62¢ $36 28h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 67¢ $17 28h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 7¢ $3 28h
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 15¢ $2 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 33¢ $13 29h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 67¢ $134 29h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 3¢ $0 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $5 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 3¢ $0 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $13 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $2 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 5¢ $1 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 24¢ $43 30h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 31h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 69¢ $7 31h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 15¢ $6 2d
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 75¢ $4 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $3 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 42¢ $1 2d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $15 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 84¢ $78 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.61 · official $549.97 · 3500 history records