Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
19 0x19b6…b7cd sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$464 (-3%) realized −$378 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$888now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,242
7 days+$458
14 days−$1,606
30 days−$558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,511
other 10% +$874
crypto 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -44.8% -50.0% 29% 29% +6.6%
≤30d 52 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 48% -12.6%
≤90d 52 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 48% -12.6%
all 52 -12.6% -20.9% 48% 48% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 48% -12.6%
10% -28.5% 48% -21.0%
15% -35.4% 44% -28.6%
20% -41.7% 33% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$266 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$888
Realized−$378
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions8
Markets (closed)52 / 60
History coverage20d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 58¢ 51¢ $401 $352 −$48 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $270 $275 +$5 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $216 $203 −$13 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,369 +$1,242 +91%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $386 −$385 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $330 −$322 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $216 +$207 +96%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $245 −$242 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $401 +$495 +124%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $835 −$826 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $304 +$99 +32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $502 +$450 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $466 −$466 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $521 +$414 +79%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $195 +$86 +44%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $930 +$553 +60%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $420 +$279 +67%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,040 −$1,028 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $248 −$247 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1,318 +$538 +41%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,555 −$1,555 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $52 −$52 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $940 −$940 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $155 −$155 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $211 +$162 +77%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $395 +$144 +36%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $123 −$123 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $358 +$499 +139%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $35 +$11 +32%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $487 +$239 +49%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $409 +$500 +122%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $150 −$148 -99%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $93 +$39 +42%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $27 −$27 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $232 +$101 +43%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E Jun 01 $105 −$105 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner May 31 $8 −$8 -99%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $130 +$67 +52%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Two Move (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern May 30 $3 +$5 +194%
Dota 2: Team G vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $21 +$22 +104%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $197 +$121 +61%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $75 +$128 +170%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $103 +$126 +122%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $28 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,202 7h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,369 8h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $130 3d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $38 3d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $7 3d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $3 3d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $53 3d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $29 3d
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 58¢ $143 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $3 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $16 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $34 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $16 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $4 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $4 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $3 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 54¢ $34 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $121 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $10 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $47 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $1 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $5 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $7 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $54 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $2 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 48¢ $24 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $330 3d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $0 3d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $205 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $888.19 · official $880.69 (match) · 226 history records