Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19b5…1d5b world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$6
other 22% −$1
politics 7% −$2
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 42% 8% -11.0%
≤30d 23 -1.9% -11.2% 39% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 23 -1.9% -11.2% 39% 4% -10.2%
all 51 -2.9% -12.1% 35% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -10.1%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage254d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 61¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +8%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $26 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $57 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $46 +$8 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $61 −$5 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 −$11 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $55 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $72 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $62 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -88%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jan 31 $13 −$2 -15%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Jan 31 $11 $0 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 21 $13 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 09 $25 $0 +2%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 08 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $63 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $34 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $6 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 25h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $25 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $26 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $54 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $61 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.83 · official $62.83 (match) · 227 history records