Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x19b5…96a8 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+21%) realized +$105 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +36.1% +23.1% 18% 18% +83.2%
≤30d 11 +36.1% +23.1% 18% 18% +83.2%
≤90d 11 +36.1% +23.1% 18% 18% +83.2%
all 11 +36.1% +23.1% 18% 18% +83.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 18% +83.2%
10% +11.3% 18% +65.7%
15% +0.6% 18% +49.7%
20% -9.3% 18% +35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +102% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$35 · ×10.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Up 7¢ 6¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$60 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$500 +833%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$255 +464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $88 −$80 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.58 · official $37.58 (match) · 19 history records