Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19b3…7239 crypto 454 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$667 (-8%) realized −$713 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%192W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$182
14 days−$182
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$855
other 7% −$185
sports 6% +$88
world 5% −$28
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -57.0% -61.1% 14% 14% -81.9%
≤30d 14 -57.0% -61.1% 14% 14% -81.9%
≤90d 269 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 40% -21.1%
all 449 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 41% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 41% -21.9%
10% -33.3% 37% -29.4%
15% -39.7% 32% -36.2%
20% -45.6% 26% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$286
Realized−$713
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses192 / 257
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)449 / 454
History coverage120d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 13¢ 37¢ $70 $194 +$124 (+177%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 27¢ 15¢ $90 $50 −$40 (-45%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 44¢ 55¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+24%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 57¢ 10¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 230 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 1 - 1 Atalanta BC? Jun 21 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $21 +$14 +66%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 −$12 -58%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 22 $20 +$18 +86%
Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 0 - 0 Atalanta BC? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 1 - 0 Atalanta BC? May 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 22 $12 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 22 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 22 $44 +$6 +15%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: FC St. Pauli 1910 2 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: FC St. Pauli 1910 2 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 15 $32 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 15 $21 +$4 +19%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 3 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 1h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 29h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 38h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 2d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 30d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $34 30d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 30d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 30d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 30d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 30d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 30d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 30d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 30d
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $31 32d
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $2 32d
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 32d
Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 1 - 1 Atalanta BC? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.68 · official $285.68 (match) · 960 history records