trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 50% | 0% | -14.9% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -12.3% | -20.7% | 46% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 53% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 19 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 53% | 0% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.2% | 0% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -25.1% | 0% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -32.4% | 0% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -39.0% | 0% | -34.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $2,328 | $2,326 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 78¢ | 80¢ | $468 | $477 | +$9 (+2%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | $52 | $53 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 26 | $1,912 | −$121 | -6% |
| Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $101 | +$2 | +2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 14 | $200 | +$2 | +1% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Jun 14 | $206 | +$5 | +3% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 10 | $3,693 | −$1 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 29 | $338 | +$11 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | May 29 | $300 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | May 29 | $390 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | May 29 | $529 | +$4 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? | May 29 | $5 | −$3 | -64% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? | May 29 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 8? | May 29 | $642 | −$24 | -4% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 29 | $223 | +$10 | +4% |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison? | May 08 | $677 | −$78 | -12% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 08 | $2,679 | +$23 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 08 | $1,053 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 8? | May 08 | $48 | +$3 | +6% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? | May 08 | $98 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 28 | $1,143 | +$9 | +1% |