Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x19b1…c141 crypto 1189 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$386 (+3%) realized +$386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%732W / 457L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$144
14 days+$33
30 days+$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -11.6% -20.0% 56% 56% -15.8%
≤30d 261 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 63% -2.9%
≤90d 1110 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 59% -7.4%
all 1189 +6.4% -3.7% 62% 58% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 58% -7.6%
10% -12.9% 52% -16.4%
15% -21.3% 50% -24.5%
20% -29.1% 50% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses732 / 457
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1189 / 1189
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1189 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$22 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$22 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $38 +$22 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$23 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $38 +$22 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $38 +$22 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$21 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $32 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $27 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $19 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $38 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records