Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x19af…a063 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$74
sports 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +15.8% +4.8% 72% 56% +6.1%
≤30d 18 +15.8% +4.8% 72% 56% +6.1%
≤90d 18 +15.8% +4.8% 72% 56% +6.1%
all 18 +15.8% +4.8% 72% 56% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 56% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 39% -4.0%
15% -14.4% 33% -13.3%
20% -22.8% 22% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$8 +149%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $37 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $27 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $27 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 33h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records