Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19ab…196c crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day83.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$11
sports 3% $0
other 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -24.2% -31.4% 44% 38% -27.3%
≤30d 34 -24.2% -31.4% 44% 38% -27.3%
≤90d 34 -24.2% -31.4% 44% 38% -27.3%
all 34 -24.2% -31.4% 44% 38% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.4% 38% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.0% 26% -34.2%
15% -44.0% 15% -40.6%
20% -49.5% 12% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day83.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 11m
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 23m
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records