Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:36:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19a7…fec6 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$364 (-3%) realized −$364 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%13W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$152
14 days−$154
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$59
tech 21% $0
culture 14% −$1
politics 14% −$54
world 5% −$109
sports 3% −$162
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.5% -29.9% 0% 0% -19.2%
≤30d 25 -7.8% -16.6% 4% 4% -16.0%
≤90d 43 -25.4% -32.5% 9% 9% -19.7%
all 74 -27.3% -34.2% 18% 16% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 16% -12.5%
10% -40.5% 15% -20.9%
15% -46.3% 14% -28.5%
20% -51.5% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$364
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses13 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage174d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $155 −$9 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $152 −$5 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $160 −$4 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $295 −$14 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $288 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $96 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 −$36 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $86 −$81 -94%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $68 −$2 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $24 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $88 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $78 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $67 −$14 -22%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $20 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 22 $26 −$26 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 22 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Apr 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5) Apr 10 $11 +$9 +88%
Panthers vs. Islanders Mar 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Kraken vs. Panthers Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 24 $8 +$6 +75%
Flames vs. Red Wings Mar 24 $12 +$8 +61%
T20I Series New Zealand vs South Africa, Women: New Zealand vs South A Mar 16 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H Mar 16 $8 +$6 +70%
Oilers vs. Blues Mar 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Canadiens vs. Kings Mar 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Flames vs. Kings Feb 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $145 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 79¢ $146 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 24¢ $145 4h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $155 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $147 5h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $147 6h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 37¢ $156 18h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $160 18h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $281 40h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $295 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $288 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $288 2d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $31 2d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $31 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $23 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $40 8d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $24 9d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $24 16d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $20 16d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $21 16d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $22 16d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $21 23d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $22 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 321 history records