Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

19 0x19a5…a3d3 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$523 (-39%) realized −$512 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate41%7W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-29.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-22.4%	-29.8%	41%	41%	-57.0%
≤30d	17	-22.4%	-29.8%	41%	41%	-57.0%
≤90d	17	-22.4%	-29.8%	41%	41%	-57.0%
all	17	-22.4%	-29.8%	41%	41%	-57.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.8%	41%	-57.0%
10%	-36.5%	41%	-61.1%
15%	-42.6%	41%	-64.8%
20%	-48.2%	29%	-68.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late -49% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$83 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.27 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$149

Realized−$512

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses7 / 10

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage4d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$65	$65	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$65	$58	−$7 (-10%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$30	$26	−$4 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$82	−$81	-99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$66	+$27	+42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$65	−$65	-99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$66	+$36	+55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$66	+$43	+65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$66	−$65	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$66	+$59	+90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$117	−$117	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$23	+226%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$30	+$28	+93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$19	+$9	+50%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$106	−$103	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$208	−$206	-99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$106	−$103	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	58¢	$69	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	52¢	$13	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$26	6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$67	6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$67	6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$65	19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$66	22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$66	24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$66	27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$66	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	22¢	$51	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$15	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$56	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$87	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$59	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$28	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	66¢	$19	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$31	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	51¢	$30	3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$106	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	53¢	$6	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	55¢	$101	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$106	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.68 · official $148.68 (match) · 35 history records