Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

19 0x19a4…a6ba politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate17%2W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$110per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$3

7 days−$3

14 days−$3

30 days−$3

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-13.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-6.8%	-15.7%	0%	0%	-9.8%
≤30d	8	-6.8%	-15.7%	0%	0%	-9.8%
≤90d	8	-6.8%	-15.7%	0%	0%	-9.8%
all	12	-3.8%	-13.0%	17%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.0%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-21.3%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-28.9%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-35.9%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late -9% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.5 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage

Net worth$227

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses2 / 10

Open positions2

Markets (closed)12 / 14

History coverage244d

Avg bet$110

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$209	$208	−$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	91¢	90¢	$19	$19	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$181	−$1	-0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$2	$0	-16%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$2	$0	-21%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$209	$0	-0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$2	$0	-17%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$198	$0	-0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$199	$0	-0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 21	$209	$0	-0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	Dec 26	$19	$0	-0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	Dec 26	$19	$0	+2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	Nov 28	$15	+$1	+8%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October?	Oct 22	$49	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	3h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	7h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	9h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	10h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	10h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$179	12h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	13h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	14h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	15h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	15h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	16h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$198	18h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$179	22h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$199	24h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$198	26h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	27h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$199	28h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	29h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	31h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	33h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY No	91¢	$19	178d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	SELL No	100¢	$19	178d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?	BUY No	100¢	$19	178d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	SELL No	100¢	$19	178d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	SELL No	95¢	$16	206d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	BUY No	88¢	$15	213d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	BUY No	98¢	$19	213d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October?	SELL No	100¢	$49	243d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October?	BUY No	100¢	$49	243d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.25 · official $227.25 (match) · 32 history records