Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x19a3…622b other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%10W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$13
politics 15% −$6
other 9% −$7
sports 2% +$9
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.2% -27.8% 0% 0% -19.1%
≤30d 18 -11.2% -19.7% 6% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 54 -7.7% -16.5% 17% 11% -9.4%
all 64 -6.9% -15.8% 16% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 9% -9.6%
10% -23.8% 9% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 9% -26.2%
20% -37.9% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses10 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage554d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $5 +$5 +114%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $90 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-6.5) Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Senators vs. Rangers Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $33 +$17 +52%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 06 $35 +$33 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 13h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 41h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 42h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 43h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $7 11d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 16d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 19d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $17 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 21d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.99 · official $63.99 (match) · 234 history records