Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
19 0x19a2…fc7a other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$165 (+53%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$163
world 6% $0
sports 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 14 +10.9% +0.3% 36% 21% +37.9%
all 14 +10.9% +0.3% 36% 21% +37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 21% +37.9%
10% -9.3% 14% +24.7%
15% -18.0% 14% +12.7%
20% -26.1% 14% +1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$0 · ×238.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×170.52 per $1 lost it wins $170.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage92d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Exact Score: US Cremonese 0 - 0 Como 1907? May 25 $6 $0 +4%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-18? Mar 23 $6 +$6 +113%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 23 $184 +$157 +85%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 19 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: US Cremonese 0 - 0 Como 1907? BUY No 96¢ $6 23d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 55d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 56d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 60d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 60d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 63d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $1 64d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 66d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 67d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 70d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 70d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 73d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 73d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 76d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 77d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 80d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 81d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 88¢ $17 85d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 88d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? BUY No 54¢ $184 88d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $1 89d
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 90d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes $1 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records