Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x199d…6e7b world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$543 (+1%) realized −$3,407 · open +$3,950
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%26W / 16L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,747per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$22,867now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days−$3,962
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$860
other 17% +$215
sports 6% +$146
politics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.2%
≤30d 14 -4.8% -13.8% 71% 29% -10.0%
≤90d 42 -14.3% -22.5% 62% 40% -16.0%
all 42 -14.3% -22.5% 62% 40% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 40% -16.0%
10% -29.9% 21% -24.0%
15% -36.7% 12% -31.4%
20% -42.9% 10% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$384 vs −$902 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$22,867
Realized−$3,407
Unrealized+$3,950
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses26 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage189d
Avg bet$1,747
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 97¢ $14,068 $18,519 +$4,450 (+32%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 64¢ 55¢ $3,100 $2,629 −$471 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 74¢ $1,498 $1,451 −$47 (-3%)
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $250 $268 +$18 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? Jun 23 $500 +$30 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $453 +$97 +21%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 −$4 -4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Jun 15 $261 +$94 +36%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4,178 −$4,178 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 04 $1,482 +$45 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 04 $2,989 +$691 +23%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$11 +6%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,620 +$162 +10%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $6,000 +$590 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $415 +$7 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $3,500 −$1,209 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $6,324 +$3,518 +56%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31? May 17 $288 −$288 -100%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? May 17 $965 +$143 +15%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $504 −$500 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $502 +$85 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $956 +$260 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $968 +$30 +3%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $811 +$708 +87%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $503 +$298 +59%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 4? May 02 $2,800 +$474 +17%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $2,158 −$1,519 -70%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 25 $92 +$66 +72%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $1,247 −$1,247 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $2,000 −$1,460 -73%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 24 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $6,254 +$1,614 +26%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $2,304 +$497 +22%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30? Apr 17 $500 +$34 +7%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30? Apr 16 $999 +$117 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $975 +$213 +22%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $481 +$116 +24%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $3,792 −$392 -10%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 10 $432 +$70 +16%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 10 $956 +$3 +0%
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? Apr 10 $976 −$914 -94%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $978 −$883 -90%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Mar 28 $789 −$789 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $200 −$44 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $529 2h
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $530 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $969 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $549 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $453 8d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 31¢ $98 8d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? SELL No 77¢ $355 8d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $585 11d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 31¢ $102 11d
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $250 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $1,000 11d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $993 15d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1,000 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $378 16d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $600 16d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1,000 16d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $2,600 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $2,600 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $1,527 19d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3,680 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 94¢ $1,182 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $500 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $7,500 22d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $211 22d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,783 22d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $6,590 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 100¢ $422 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $176 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $415 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,866.82 · official $22,866.82 (match) · 136 history records