Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
19 0x199c…467a other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$17
other 28% −$3
world 10% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$711) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$914
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage84d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $915 $914 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $981 −$2 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? May 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 19 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $703 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $711 −$2 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $747 −$9 -1%
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $191 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Mar 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 2m
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $15 12m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $860 21m
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 30m
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $979 39m
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $17 48m
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 55m
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $954 1h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $754 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $221 1h
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $976 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 26d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? SELL No 100¢ $37 26d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 26d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 26d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? BUY No 100¢ $19 26d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? BUY No 100¢ $17 26d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 26d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 26d
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 99¢ $34 28d
Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL No 100¢ $21 28d
Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $34 28d
Will Chung Jin-suk win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial BUY No 100¢ $32 28d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $685 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $914.15 · official $914.15 (match) · 93 history records