Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x199c…5270 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$513 (+32%) realized +$512 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 224d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$650
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +49.2% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.4%
≤30d 2 +49.2% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.4%
≤90d 2 +49.2% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.4%
all 3 +33.5% +20.8% 100% 67% +29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.8% 67% +29.6%
10% +9.2% 67% +17.2%
15% -1.3% 67% +5.9%
20% -11.0% 0% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$512
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage224d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$147 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $997 +$498 +50%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 10 $199 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $450 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $303 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $997 21h
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $204 188d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $199 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.71 · official $100.71 (match) · 7 history records