Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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19 0x199b…354e sports 553 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$888 (+3%) realized +$887 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate74%405W / 146L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$173
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$682
other 9% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.3% -17.9% 72% 24% -15.0%
≤30d 90 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 33% -10.8%
≤90d 449 -4.1% -13.3% 68% 28% -10.3%
all 551 -0.1% -9.6% 74% 27% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 27% -7.5%
10% -18.2% 21% -16.4%
15% -26.1% 18% -24.4%
20% -33.4% 13% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$887
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses405 / 146
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions2
Markets (closed)551 / 553
History coverage111d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Los Angeles Thieves 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 19 $14 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $13 −$11 -88%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $115 +$1 +1%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $46 −$29 -64%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $116 −$51 -44%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $120 +$3 +3%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $111 +$67 +60%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$7 +46%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$1 +2%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$17 +94%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $80 +$5 +6%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $61 +$13 +22%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $320 +$6 +2%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $213 +$12 +5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $7 +$10 +140%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $14 +$8 +56%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO7) - Call of Duty Jun 08 $12 $0 +2%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$20 +97%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $40 +$1 +2%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$2 +11%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 07 $30 +$34 +110%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 07 $21 +$12 +56%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $116 +$1 +1%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Toronto KOI - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$10 -67%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $50 +$1 +1%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 06 $13 −$11 -85%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 06 $42 −$42 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Miami Heretics - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $75 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 99¢ $3 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $40 1h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY FaZe Vegas 99¢ $14 2h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of SELL Carolina Royal Ravens 5¢ $2 4d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 40¢ $13 4d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 1 Winner BUY Riyadh Falcons 99¢ $50 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 36¢ $20 5d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 37¢ $20 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL G2 Minnesota 1¢ $1 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL Los Angeles Thieves 52¢ $39 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY G2 Minnesota 44¢ $61 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 40¢ $31 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY G2 Minnesota 23¢ $4 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 99¢ $30 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty SELL Los Angeles Thieves 74¢ $25 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Los Angeles Thieves 58¢ $20 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 98¢ $100 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 34¢ $5 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 65¢ $10 5d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 34¢ $5 5d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL FaZe Vegas 1¢ $1 5d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY FaZe Vegas 31¢ $5 5d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Miami Heretics 65¢ $10 5d
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY FaZe Vegas 39¢ $31 5d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY OpTic Texas 59¢ $20 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY OpTic Texas 55¢ $20 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY OpTic Texas 65¢ $81 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 98¢ $100 6d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner BUY OpTic Texas 46¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.16 · official $44.16 (match) · 1564 history records