Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x199a…a068 sports 33 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (830 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$106 (-9%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day830.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$143
other 16% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (830 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -16.2% -24.2% 21% 6% -19.4%
≤30d 33 -16.2% -24.2% 21% 6% -19.4%
≤90d 33 -16.2% -24.2% 21% 6% -19.4%
all 33 -16.2% -24.2% 21% 6% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover830.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 6% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 3% -27.1%
15% -38.1% 0% -34.1%
20% -44.2% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
24.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day830.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $135 +$13 +9%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $112 −$34 -30%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $46 −$9 -20%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $114 −$37 -33%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $3 −$1 -31%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $6 −$1 -26%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $60 −$2 -3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $12 −$1 -10%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 $0 -21%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 $0 -18%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$1 -16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $9 −$2 -17%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $12 +$2 +16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 -10%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $25 −$14 -57%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +7%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $32 −$3 -8%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $46 −$2 -4%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $54 −$1 -2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $70 −$11 -16%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $332 −$19 -6%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 84¢ $2 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 23¢ $1 6d
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) SELL Cincinnati Reds 70¢ $1 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 67¢ $1 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 6d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 66¢ $2 6d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 74¢ $4 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 74¢ $2 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 85¢ $6 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 49¢ $3 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 37¢ $3 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 33¢ $3 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 99¢ $10 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 100¢ $15 6d
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $9 6d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) SELL Washington Nationals 96¢ $6 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 70¢ $13 6d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 15¢ $7 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $20 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $15 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 48¢ $11 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 32¢ $10 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 12¢ $2 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $77 6d
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? SELL No 95¢ $53 6d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $79 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 840 history records